Eyes on Copenhagen

The eyes of people concerned about our changing world climate all are focused on the U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen this week. Those who are in the know are not expecting a new global climate treaty, even though in Poznan, Poland, at last year's conference, such a treaty was predicted to come from the Copenhagen summit. There is still much disagreement between industrialized and developing nations that centers around four points, according to Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change:

1) How much are the industrialized countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases?

2) How much are major developing countries, such as China and India, willing to do to limit the growth of their emissions?

3) How is the help needed by developing countries to engage in reducing their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change going to be financed?

4) How is that money going to be managed?

"If Copenhagen can deliver on those four points, I'd be happy," de Boer said in a recent interview.

The Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 1997 and will expire in 2012. It set binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for 184 countries. The most notable exception is the United States, and de Boer told the press he is "really happy" to see the U.S. back in negotiations. He thinks the Kyoto Protocol was rejected by Congress for two reasons: because it did not involve action on the part of major developing countries and because it was felt by the Bush administration that Kyoto would be harmful to the U.S. economy.

The authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports sponsored by the U.N. released a special report, called "The Copenhagen Diagnosis," to draw delegates' attention to seven main points:

1) Greenhouse gas emissions are surging. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were 40 percent higher than those in 1990. Stabilizing global emissions at these levels is too low and may lead to global warming of 2 degrees or more, crossing the catastrophic threshold.

2) Recent global temperatures show human-based warming. Temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees C per decade for 2 1/2 decades. There have been natural, short-term fluctuations but no changes in the underlying warming trend.

3) Melting of glaciers and global ice is accelerating. Satellite and ice measurements now show beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice sheets also has accelerated since 1990.

4) There's been a rapid loss of Arctic sea ice. Summertime melting of Arctic sea ice has accelerated far beyond the climate models. This area of sea ice melt during 2007-09 was about 40 percent greater than the average prediction from previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models.

5) Sea levels are rising faster than predicted. Satellites show the average global sea level rise (3.4 millimeters per year over the past 15 years) to be 80 percent above past IPCC predictions because of the more rapid melting of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise for at least a century after the global temperature has been stabilized and could rise several meters over the next few centuries.

6) By delaying action, we risk irreversible damage. The most vulnerable elements of our biosphere, such as continental ice sheets and rain forests, could be pushed toward abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues at its current rate. The risk of passing a tipping point increases the longer that we wait. It's time to evoke the Precautionary Principle — meaning that if we delay action hoping for scientific certainty, we may run out of options.

7) Peak carbon must be now. If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 degrees C above preindustrial values — considered the catastrophic threshold — global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly.

Shawn Dell Joyce is an award-winning columnist and founder of the Wallkill River School in Orange County, N.Y. You can contact her at Shawn@ShawnDellJoyce.com.