New Poll: Obama Holds Commanding Lead with Latino Voters in Key Battleground States
By Mel Fabrikant Friday, June 22, 2012, 09:05 PM EDT
DREAMer Protection Decision Driving Up Latino Voter Enthusiasm
New polling from Latino Decisions and America’s Voice shows President Obama holds a commanding lead over Mitt Romney with Latino voters in key swing states. In Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia combined, Latino voters favor Obama over Mitt Romney by a 63% to 27% margin. As shown by an earlier poll released this week, there is growing enthusiasm amongst Latino voters due to the President’s decision to provide relief to undocumented youth.
According to this updated poll, support for the new change in policy and enthusiasm amongst Latino voters overall have only increased as the week has gone on— 58% of Latinos are now more enthusiastic about Obama representing a slight shift from the 54% of Latinos who reported being more enthusiastic about Obama at the beginning of this week.
These polls are also highlighted by a new website (link - http://latinovotematters.org) for political analysis from Latino Decisions and our sister organization, America’s Voice Education Fund. An interactive voter map (link - http://www.latinovotemap.org/map/) documents these shifts in Latino voting patterns, allowing users to predict how this key demographic will vote and influence the outcome of the election in November.
See below for Latino Decisions’ analysis of the poll (link - http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/06/22/new-poll-obama-leads-romney-among-latinos-in-key-2012-battleground-states/):
New polling released June 22, 2012 by Latino Decisions and America’s Voice finds President Obama maintaining a wide lead over Republican Mitt Romney among Latino registered voters in five key battleground states. The poll interviewed 400 Latinos each in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia – all states expected to be very competitive in 2012 where Latino voters could decide the outcome. In Florida, the poll found Obama leading Romney by a margin of 53% to 37%, a slight increase from a 50% to 40% lead Obama held over Romney in a January 2012 Latino Decisions/Univision News poll in Florida. In the five states combined Obama lead Romney 63% to 27%, however in southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada Obama performed even better. In Arizona Obama received 74% to 18% for Romney, in Colorado he was favored by 70% to 22% and in Nevada 69% to 20%. In Virginia, Obama lead 59% to 28% over Romney among Latino registered voters.
Growing enthusiasm for DHS shift on DREAMers
Part of this advantage for President Obama appears to be related to his recent announcement to provide relief to undocumented immigrant youth. On June 17, two days after his announcement our Latino Decisions/America’s Voice poll first reported that 49% of Latino voters were now more enthusiastic about Obama, while 14% were less enthusiastic (+35). Over the course of the week, as the DREAMer relief received further attention in the Latino community we found increased support for the announcement. Among all 2,000 survey respondents, now ranging through June 21st, 54% of Latinos are more enthusiastic about Obama compared to 11% who are less enthusiastic (+43). Looking just at the new polling data gathered June 17-21, 58% are now more enthusiastic compared to 9% who are less enthusiastic (+49). Across the key states the enthusiasm for the DHS policy shift follows trends in Obama support. For example, in Arizona and Nevada Latinos showed the most enthusiastic response.
Enthusiasm at the Polls?
The survey (link - http://d.pr/qE0E) also asked Latinos how enthusiastic they were about voting in the 2012 election, following similar questions that were asked in our November 2011 benchmark survey (link - http://d.pr/1nls) with Univision. In November 2011 (link - http://d.pr/qSD9), 47% of Latinos were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the Presidential election. Today, 60% of Latino voters report they are very enthusiastic about voting in the November 2012 election and an additional 23% are somewhat enthusiastic. When asked to compare their interest and enthusiasm levels in the 2008 and 2012 election, more people now tell us they more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 than 2008, a shift from our previous polling. In November 2011 (link - http://d.pr/qSD9) 33% were more excited about the 2012 election and 48% were more motivated during the 2008 election. In January 2012 (link - http://d.pr/824H) 38% of Latinos were more enthusiastic about 2012 while 46% said they were more enthusiastic back in 2008. Now, in June 2012, 48% are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 while 29% said they were more enthusiastic in 2008.
About the Poll
Full results by state can be found in Recent Polls (link - http://d.pr/zT0d). Latino Decisions interviewed 2,000 Latino registered voters between June 12-21, 2012 using live telephone callers, sampled across five states, with 400 each in AZ, CO, FL, NV, VA. A mix of landline and cell phone-only households were called, and up to 5 attempts were made per number. Latino respondents had the opportunity to complete the survey in either English or Spanish, using fully bilingual callers, and overall 38% of Latinos chose to complete the survey in Spanish. Data are weighted to the state proportion of the Latino population across the five states for a combined battleground sample as well as weighted accurately within each state. Overall, the entire sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.2% and each state sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Additional survey results (link - http://d.pr/GSuB), including Congressional vote and policy attitudes will be reported later this month.
• Link to New Latino Decisions/America’s Voice Polling Demonstrating that Latino Voters in Battleground States Enthusiastic about Obama DREAM Announcement: http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/06/22/new-poll-obama-leads-romney-among-latinos-in-key-2012-battleground-states/
• Link to Latino Vote Matters Website: http://latinovotematters.org/
• Link to Interactive Voter Map: http://www.latinovotemap.org/map/