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Saturday, April 19, 2014, 05:30 AM EDT
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So-So Black Friday Sales Trump Rise In Manufacturing

Yesterday, stocks fell despite a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing report rising for the sixth straight month to 57.3 in November, the highest reading since April 2011. Mixed shopping reports suggesting just moderate spending over Black Friday weekend trumped signals of stronger demand per the ISM and ended an eight week run higher, with the Dow posting the worst day since November 7th. The Dow fell 78pts or 0.5% yesterday.

This morning, the ISM New York rose from 59.3 to an impressive 69.5, the highest reading since 2010 reaffirming the rise in the National ISM reported yesterday.

NY Index (Orange) vs. ISM (White)

And, later today total vehicle sales are expected to rise from 15.15M to a 15.80M unit pace.

As we mentioned before, the highlight of this week’s economic calendar comes Friday with the release of the November nonfarm payroll report. Given the outsized rise in the October report, all eyes will be watching the November report to see if the rising trend is confirmed or if last month’s improvement was an anomaly.
Tomorrow the trade balance is expected to narrow to -$40bn in October and new home sales for both September and October will be released jointly due to the October shutdown.

Lindsey M. Piegza
Managing Director
Chief Economist
233 S. Wacker Drive, Suite 9550
Chicago, IL 60606
P) 312.924.0607 F) 312.924.7995

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